Saturday, August 20, 2005
5:43 pm | Posted by
Mark Chataway |
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If you believe the opinion polls, George Bush is more unpopular than any president since polling started: he has a lower approval rating than John F. Kennedy just after the Bay of Pigs; lower than Lyndon Johnson at the nadir of the Vietnam war; lower than Jimmy Carter after a year of captivity for the US hostages in Iran; lower even than Richard Nixon on the eve of his resignation. Admittedly the others may have had great accomplishments that reinforced their positive ratings – JFK had Camelot, LBJ had the Civil Rights Act, Nixon had peace in Vietnam and the opening to China; Carter had his evident decency and honesty (and was the first Southerner to hold the White House since the Civil War which made a chunk of the Old South loathe to turn on him). Admittedly, Iraq has been a disaster and the half-truths which led to war are looking more and more like quarter-truths by the week. But is Bush really that disliked?
A part of the truth is probably that all of us have become more and more sophisticated about how we deal with market researchers of all kinds and especially about how we send messages through political pollsters. Even in the late 70s, when Carter was in the White House, people were much more naïve: if someone in a shopping mall (remember telephone samples were still seen as a bit unreliable) asked if you approved of the President’s performance, you were more inclined to weigh things and say whether on balance you really did or did not. Today, the respondents know what the headlines will look like. They know that only a 1,000 people are being questioned and that their answer will help send a message which will be on CNN and Fox News within 24 hours.
Bill Clinton was not the most popular president in recent history in the week where his adultery became common knowledge: it was just that, on balance, people did not want him to resign. Poll respondents were sophisticated enough to know that “approve” would mean a rejection of the calls for impeachment; “disapprove” would egg on Kenneth Starr and the Republicans in the Senate. George W. Bush is not the most unpopular president ever: the respondents know that “disapprove” ratches up the pressure for a quick end to the Iraqi adventure and discourages any other neo-con initiatives. It does not necessarily mean that most would even vote Democrat (as other polls show).
The same phenomenon is true in other countries. The Pew Research Center for People and the Press recently reported growing hostility towards America and growing approval ratings for Osama Bin Laden in some Moslem countries. Quite apart from serious methodological problems in the research, the analysis was misleading. The standardised polling questions did not ask about the invasion of Iraq or American threats to Iran. Even in Pakistan and the Middle East, respondents know that admitting to some admiration for Osama is a way of expressing opposition to the war in Iraq and to US policy in the Middle East.
In the commercial world, the analysis of market research data still ignores this inclination of respondents to use research to send messages. What ever I really think of mango-flavoured yoghourt, I may well claim to detest it if I think that admitting to be willing to try it will reduce the shelf space allocated to the flavours I like at the moment.
A part of the truth is probably that all of us have become more and more sophisticated about how we deal with market researchers of all kinds and especially about how we send messages through political pollsters. Even in the late 70s, when Carter was in the White House, people were much more naïve: if someone in a shopping mall (remember telephone samples were still seen as a bit unreliable) asked if you approved of the President’s performance, you were more inclined to weigh things and say whether on balance you really did or did not. Today, the respondents know what the headlines will look like. They know that only a 1,000 people are being questioned and that their answer will help send a message which will be on CNN and Fox News within 24 hours.
Bill Clinton was not the most popular president in recent history in the week where his adultery became common knowledge: it was just that, on balance, people did not want him to resign. Poll respondents were sophisticated enough to know that “approve” would mean a rejection of the calls for impeachment; “disapprove” would egg on Kenneth Starr and the Republicans in the Senate. George W. Bush is not the most unpopular president ever: the respondents know that “disapprove” ratches up the pressure for a quick end to the Iraqi adventure and discourages any other neo-con initiatives. It does not necessarily mean that most would even vote Democrat (as other polls show).
The same phenomenon is true in other countries. The Pew Research Center for People and the Press recently reported growing hostility towards America and growing approval ratings for Osama Bin Laden in some Moslem countries. Quite apart from serious methodological problems in the research, the analysis was misleading. The standardised polling questions did not ask about the invasion of Iraq or American threats to Iran. Even in Pakistan and the Middle East, respondents know that admitting to some admiration for Osama is a way of expressing opposition to the war in Iraq and to US policy in the Middle East.
In the commercial world, the analysis of market research data still ignores this inclination of respondents to use research to send messages. What ever I really think of mango-flavoured yoghourt, I may well claim to detest it if I think that admitting to be willing to try it will reduce the shelf space allocated to the flavours I like at the moment.
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1 comments:
Does it matter? President Bush does not have another term for which he needs to be elected, so his ratings are probably less important to him than his policy goals. You are right about how misleading polls can be, particularly in the highly charged contest between left and right in democracies like the USA, UK and for instance, India. In countries where one side is so firmly entrenched that the opposition hardly has a shout, like Botswana, polls do not feature as part of the public discourse.
People send messages though polls, but they make choices by casting their votes. Polls are interesting, but elections matter.